A historically unpopular Supreme Court made a historically unpopular decision

Questa settimana, il US Supreme Court delivered its most controversial decision in at least a decade. The ruling to overturn the landmark Roe v. Decisione Wade that established a constitutional right to an aborto may have major electoral consequences in this year’s midterm elections.

I covered the political impact in part in a prior column. But the court’s actions in this case may do something more than just affect the elections this year.
The Supreme Court’s own reputation is at stake, and the decision to get rid of Roe v. Guadare and to upset the status quo comes at a very sensitive time for the justices in a different court: the one of public opinion.
    And that’s where we’ll start our look at the news of the week through numbers.

      The Supreme Court is historically unpopular

        The Supreme Court is not elected by the voters. A lot of people agree, anche se, that it’s important that the court maintains its legitimacy in the eyes of the public. Dopotutto, the court relies on others to enforce its own rulings.
        The high court’s legitimacy in the public’s mind was already at very low levels, and that was before the overturning of Roesomething most Americans didn’t want.
          Forty-one percent of voters approved of the job the Supreme Court was doing, secondo a May Quinnipiac University poll. The majority (52%) disapprovato. That was the highest disapproval rating recorded by Quinnipiac since it started asking about the court’s approval back in 2004.
          The court’s standing is a reversal from where things were two years ago when 52% of voters approved and 37% disapproved in Quinnipiac polling.
          Quinnipiac isn’t the only pollster to show a major degradation in the court’s standing. The percentage of Americans (25%) who have great or quite a lot of confidence in the court is at the lowest level ever recorded by Gallup da 1973.
          The slide can primarily be attributed to Democrats. Oggi, 78% of Democrats disapprove of the job the court is doing, according to Quinnipiac. Nel 2020, appena 43% fatto. Republican disapproval of the court has declined from 38% two years ago to 28% adesso.
          The reason the public and Democrats have turned against the Supreme Court is pretty clear: It’s been seen as increasingly political and issuing decisions that aren’t popular.
          The aforementioned Quinnipiac poll showed that a mere 34% of voters believed the court is mainly motivated by the law. Most (62%) felt that the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by politics. Quattro anni fa, the split was far more even, con 50% believing the court was mainly motivated by politics and 42% saying it was mainly motivated by the law.
          Ancora, this trend is driven by Democrats. Eighty-six percent of them told Quinnipiac the court is mainly motivated by politics. That’s up from 60% nel 2018. Republicans who said the same had barely changed, a partire dal 46% nel 2018 per 42% adesso.
          It would be one thing if the court was seen as activist and making popular rulings. Non è. Both the Gallup and Quinnipiac polls were taken after word leaked in May that the court was on the precipice of overturning Roe.
          Americans agreed with the 1973 Roe ruling. UN May NBC News poll trovato quello 63% of them didn’t want Roe overturned. Infatti, every poll I know of has shown a clear majority of Americans in favor of Roe.
          This has pretty much always been the case, going back to 1973, quando 52% favored the decision in a poll by Louis Harris & Associati.
          Infatti, I’m not sure I can recall another controversial and consequential Supreme Court decision that was this unpopular.
          Sondaggi found a split public when the court mostly upheld the Affordable Care Act in 2012.
          A majority of Americans (54%) were in favor of the court stopping the hand recount in Florida that effectively ended the 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush e Al Gore, secondo a CBS News poll al tempo.
          A majority (55%) also approved of the court’s decision to desegregate public schools in 1954’s Brown v. Board of Education.
          One could argue that what the Supreme Court has done in overturning Roe is unprecedented from a public opinion point of view.
          What effect it will ultimately have, tuttavia, is yet to be determined.

          Record midterm turnout looks possible

          One potential impact of the Supreme Court’s latest ruling is that it could make people more likely to turn out to votein a cycle that is already seeing really high turnout.
          In altre parole, we could be looking at a second consecutive midterm with record turnout.
          Through Tuesday, turnout in primaries is up 13% in the states that have voted so far compared with this point in 2018. (This does not include states where statewide turnout by party was unavailable for either 2018 o 2022.)
          Il 2018 rivelarsi, itself, was up from both 2014 e 2010. Infatti, 2018 had the highest midterm turnoutas a percentage of the voting-eligible populationin more than a century.
          The high primary turnout shouldn’t be surprising given what we saw in Virginia last year or in the polling so far this cycle. The competitive 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election had the highest turnout for an off-year election in the commonwealth since at least the mid-1990s.
          Ulteriore, more voters are extremely enthusiastic about voting this year than in either 2010 o 2014, secondo CNN/SSRS polling. And that extreme enthusiasm matches how voters felt at this point in 2018.
          Under a slightly different metric, ABC News/Washington Post polling has found more voters saying at this point in the midterm cycle that they’re certain to vote in November than at similar points in the 2010, 2014 o 2018 cycles.
          I should point out that under all these turnout metrics, Republicans have been doing better than Democrats. Turnout is up 28% in Republican primaries from 2018, while it is down 2% in Democratic primaries. Republicans are more enthusiastic and certain to turn out than Democrats, according to the polls.
          The fall of Roe could alter that dynamic, at least a little bit. A majority of Democrats (55%) detto in a May Kaiser Family Foundation poll that they would be more motivated to turn out in the midterms if Roe were overturned. Solo 23% of Republicans said the same.
          Put another way, the overturning of Roe means we might not only be looking at record Republican turnout come November. Democrats may end up not being too far behind.

          For your brief encounters: School ends in the nation’s largest city

          Many students, from kindergarten to 12th grade, have been on summer break for a while now. That is not the case in New York City, where the final day of school is Lunedi.
          For most elementary school students, 2015 Gallup polling suggests there will be a bit of sadness. The majority of them feel engaged by school. The opposite is true of high school students, who feel mostly bored.
          An editorial note: This writer always felt ecstatic at the end of school, no matter the grade. He hated school and never, mai, wishes to go back.

          Leftover polls

          America’s influence: Un nuovo Pew Research Center poll finds that 47% of Americans think the country’s influence in the world is waning, mentre 19% think it is getting stronger. A majority (66%) think China’s influence is getting stronger.
            Smartphone attachment: A recent Sondaggio Gallup shows that 58% of Americans say they spend too much time on their smartphones, but about 65% say the devices have made their lives at least a little better.
            Trump Troubles: Ex Presidente Donald Trump had led in every national or early-primary-state poll since February 2016. That streak ended when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis posted a within-the-margin-of-error lead (39% per 37%) in last week’s University of New Hampshire poll of likely 2024 GOP primary voters.

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