As the storm intensifies and begins its northward trek, it will be close enough to the coast to bring significant rainfall to areas like Kochi and Mangalore, even up to Mumbai — India’s financial capital and most populous city. Rainfall amounts will vary based on how close the storm gets as it moves generally parallel to the coast, but widespread amounts of 100 aan 250 mm (4 aan 10 duim) will be likely.
As the storm tracks north along the west coast of India, the flow of the storm on the south side will push rain onshore. This rainfall could certainly bring flooding to areas that are used to it as India’s monsoon season gets underway in a matter of weeks.
It appears likely that this storm will ultimately become the equivalent of a major hurricane (Kategorie 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). The general consensus among forecast models at this point is that the greatest risk for landfall is from Gujarat in northwest India to Karachi, Pakistan, between Monday night and Wednesday.
If the storm makes landfall at a strength equivalent to a major hurricane it will not only bring winds well over 100 mph and flooding rains, but incredibly rough seas and significant storm surge, which poses a deadly threat. Oor die naweek, as the storm becomes better organized, forecast models and meteorologists should get a better idea of the exact impacts — timing, location and intensity.
May is not an unusual time to get tropical cyclones in the Northern Indian Ocean.
This region of the world has two distinct tropical cyclone seasons — April to June and October to November. This marks the months immediately before and after the southwest Indian monsoon season. During the monsoon season, upper-level winds are not favorable for tropical cyclone development.