Using a peer-reviewed extreme heat model, First Street Foundation used property-level data to find the hottest seven days of the year currently and compared that to the equivalent in 30 años. De media, the seven hottest days will increase to 18 por 2053, the researchers found.
But in the southern half of the country, the number of hottest days will grow to around 30 — meaning what was once the hottest week of the year will become the hottest month by the 2050s, según el estudio.
Florida’s Miami-Dade County will see the largest shift in extreme temperatures, where the hottest seven days of the year in 2023 (heat index of 103 grados) will occur on 34 days in 2053. Other locations in Florida and along the Gulf Coast are likely to experience more than 30 additional days of heat indices above 100 degrees by 2053, el estudio encontró.
Nationwide, the number of counties expected to reach a heat index of 125 degrees at least once a year will jump more than 20-fold from 50 en 2023 a 1,023 en 2053, según el estudio.
The probability of local heat waves — defined as temperatures well-above normal for three consecutive days — will also increase across the country, but is highest along the West Coast, según el estudio.
“Interestingly, exposure to Consecutive Local Hot Days is most likely to occur in West Coast states, while states in the Midwest, Southeast, and East Coast are most at risk of exposure to extremely dangerous temperatures, meaning virtually the entire country is subject to increasing perils associated with heat exposure,” the study finds.
The study also determined a projection of change for each of the US states