“I don’t feel any pressure to make it
, 本当に, anytime soon
,” ジョンソン AP通信に語った on Thursday of his decision
, 追加する: “I’m undecided.
Which is interesting — on a lot of levels, but none more so than this: Would Senate Republicans have a better chance of holding the seat if Johnson decided to retire?
That isn’t a question that I would ask about most incumbents weighing whether or not to run. 結局, incumbents, historically, have had a much higher rate of success in holding on to their seats than the average candidate.
(一例: Iowa Sen
. チャックグラスリー, 誰が持っている yet to announce whether he will run again in 2022
, would have a MUCH better chance of holding the seat for Republicans than any replacement candidate if he decides to retire.
But Johnson isn’t just any incumbent representing just any state. He’s a very controversial senator who has spent the last few years acting as though he represents a Republican fortress like Idaho or Mississippi when in fact he currently holds a Senate seat in Wisconsin.
There was that time when Johnson said the media was overblowing the number of people who were dying from the coronavirus
. And the time he demanded that Attorney General Bill Barr provide evidence that there wasn’t fraud in the 2020 選挙
. And that other time when Johnson said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi impeached Donald Trump to distract from her role in the January 6 国会議事堂の暴動
There’s more. 多くの, much more. But you get the idea.
None of Johnson’s out-there positioning fits the swing nature of Wisconsin
. This is a state that Trump won narrowly in
2016 そして Biden won by 0.6 percentage point
(20,000 投票) 昨年11月. Democrats control seven of the eight statewide elected offices in Wisconsin
, with Johnson the lone Republican
要するに, this isn’t a state where Johnson’s Trumpy-ness will play all that well
. (Donald Trump himself is
, 驚くことではないが, all in for Johnson to run for a third term
; “He has no idea how popular he is
,” the former President said earlier
今年. “メイフィールドは声明で言った, ロン, メイフィールドは声明で言った!”)
While few Republicans have talked about their interest in an open-seat race
— out of deference to Johnson
— がある five GOP members in the state’s House delegation
, several of whom would likely take a look at the race and none of whom would start with the negatives of Johnson
ポイント: With Republicans needing just a single-seat gain to retake the majority in 2022, every seat counts. And Wisconsin is going to be a major battleground no matter what. The real question is whether Republicans would have a better chance without Ron Johnson in the race.