Cheney's loss may be the second worst for a House incumbent in 60 연령

The surprising story out of Tuesday’s Republican House primary 와이오밍주 wasn’t that 대표. 리즈 체니가 졌다. 그만큼 pre-election polls all showed her losing handily to eventual winner Harriet Hageman.

The big news from the Cowboy State was her margin of defeat. Cheney’s loss is one of the biggest on record for a House incumbent and is part of a pattern this primary season pointing to former 도널드 트럼프 대통령‘s strength within the Republican Party.
Cheney’s defeat appears to be 그만큼 둘째 최악의 for a House incumbent in the last 60 연령, when you look at races featuring only one incumbent. 수요일 오후부터, she trailed Hageman by 37.4 포인트들, which is just worse than California Rep. Marty Martinez’s loss by 37.2 points to fellow Democrat Hilda Solis in a 2000 blanket primary.
    Assuming the Wyoming result margin stands, South Carolina Republican Bob Inglis would then be the only House incumbent in the last 60 years to lose by a wider margin than Cheney. He lost by 41 에 포인트 2010 primary runoff to Trey Gowdy.
      The Inglis comparison to Cheney’s loss is notable for two reasons.
        The first is that Inglislopsided defeat occurred in a runoff, with only about 77,000 people voting. That was down from the about 87,000 who voted in the first round for the upstate South Carolina seat and far less than the roughly 217,000 who voted in the fall election in that district.
        Cheney can’t blame low turnout for her historic defeat. 약 170,000 votes have been counted in Wyoming as of Wednesday afternoon. That’s not too far off from the approximately 201,000 Wyomingites who voted in the last midterm general election. Cheney’s loss was no fluke.
          The second reason the comparison is notable is that Inglis had alienated the Republican base by opposing the 2007 Iraq troop surge, voting for the so-called bank bailout in 2008 과 believing in man-made climate change.
          In Cheney’s case, the offense in votersminds was that she voted to impeach Trump last year and seemed to relish her opposition to him.

          Beyond Cheney

          Cheney’s loss wasn’t the only historic defeat this primary season.
          GOP 담당자. 톰 라이스 of South Carolina, who also voted to impeach Trump, got blown out in his primary in June. He pulled in 단순한 24.6% 투표의 while losing to Russell Fry. That percentage appears to be the worst performance for a House incumbent in a partisan primary with just one incumbent running since 1992.

          과연, all six House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump and ran for reelection faced tough battles. Four of them (including Cheney and Rice) lost their primaries, which is extremely unusual. 다만 2% of other House Republicans who have run for reelection this season have lost primaries, and those defeated lawmakers were either scandal-plagued or lost to a fellow incumbent because of redistricting.
          혹시, more notable is that none of the aforementioned six impeachment-backing Republicans got a majority of votes cast for GOP candidates in their primaries. 이후 1956, House incumbents have averaged more than 90% of the primary vote.
          All of these historical anomalies related to those who voted to impeach Trump help us understand Trump’s strength with the Republican Party today.
          It makes Cheney’s postelection goal of stopping Trump from regaining power a tough one. (여자 NBC에 말했다 “오늘” 보여 주다 on Wednesday that she wasthinking aboutrunning for president in 2024, something Trump is also considering.)
          The former President is averaging about 50% of the national GOP primary vote for 2024 지금. That’s the best for any nonincumbent Republican at this point in the modern primary era.
          Cheney’s favorable rating among Republicans nationally is 13%, which probably makes her a terrible messenger to GOP voters.
          The truth is that Republicans are inclined to believe that President Joe Biden didn’t win the 2020 선거 (which he did). Trump’s favorable rating with this group is somewhere north of 80% in most polls. But if Trump is going to be beaten in a GOP primary, it’ll very likely be by someone who has adopted most of his message. Someone like Florida Gov. 론 데 산티스.
            If Trump is defeated in a general election, it will almost certainly be by a Democrat.
            An effort led by a Republican who doesn’t like Trump would be speaking to a very small part of the US population.

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