It’s time to “경보를 울리다” 그 조 바이든 is likely to be the next president of the United States, said Dave Wasserman, US House editor for Cook Political Report, 화요일에.
Wasserman was one of the few political commentators who correctly forecasted 트럼프 대통령 victory in 2016, writing in FiveThirtyEight two months before the last election that there is an “unusually high chance Donald Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.”
그러나 지금, Wasserman is making the case that Biden has a better chance of beating Trump in 2020 than 힐러리 클린턴 did in 2016 for multiple reasons.
“First, Biden’s lead is larger and much more stable than Clinton’s was at this point. Second, there are far fewer undecided and third-party voters left to woo — reducing the chances of a late break toward one side,” Wasserman wrote in NBC News 화요일.
“And third, the scores of district and state-level polls conducted by the parties to make spending decisions in down-ballot races generally align with national polls showing Trump running behind his 2016 pace, including in key states.”
There are, 물론이야, still paths to a second-term for the president. GOP strategist Karl Rove argued on “이야기” this week that Trump’s chances for victory hinge on winning one of the three rustbelt states he carried in 2016: 펜실베니아, Wisconsin or Michigan.
“Think about it this way, if the president wins every state — let’s take the three Great Lakes states, 펜실베니아, 미시간, 위스콘신 [과] put them to the side for a second. If the president wins every one of the rest of the states he won in 2016 and carries 펜실베니아, he’s got 280 선거 투표, 10 more than needed,” Rove said.
“If he carries 위스콘신 out of those three states, only Wisconsin, he’s got 270. If he carries 미시간 out of those three states, and loses Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he’s got 276, so the path to victory lies in these states.”
The numbers don’t look great for the president in these states though. According to the latest Fox News poll, “Biden leads by 12 points in Michigan (52-40 퍼센트), 5 points in Pennsylvania (50-45 퍼센트), 과 5 points in Wisconsin (49-44 퍼센트).”
Ultimately according to Cook Political Report’s latest projection, Democrats have 290 electoral votes in the solid, 아마도, or lean to the left categories.
공화당 원, meanwhile, have 163 electoral votes in the solid, 아마도, or lean to the right categories. There are 85 electoral votes ranked as a toss-up.