库克政治报告编辑: 是时候发出警报了’ 拜登的胜利

库克政治报告编辑: Time to 'sound the alarm' on Biden's likely victory

It’s time to “发出警报” 那 乔·拜登 is likely to be the next president of the United States, said Dave Wasserman, US House editor for Cook Political Report, 星期二.

Wasserman was one of the few political commentators who correctly forecasted 特朗普总统的 victory in 2016, writing in FiveThirtyEight two months before the last election that there is anunusually high chance Donald Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

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But now, Wasserman is making the case that Biden has a better chance of beating Trump in 2020 比 希拉里·克林顿 做了 2016 由于多种原因.

“第一, 拜登的领先优势比克林顿的领先优势更大,也更稳定. 第二, 犹豫不决的第三方选民更少了,这减少了向一侧迟到的机会,” Wasserman wrote in NBC News 星期二.

And third, the scores of district and state-level polls conducted by the parties to make spending decisions in down-ballot races generally align with national polls showing Trump running behind his 2016 步伐, including in key states.

有, 当然, still paths to a second-term for the president. GOP strategist Karl Rove argued on “故事” this week that Trump’s chances for victory hinge on winning one of the three rustbelt states he carried in 2016: 宾夕法尼亚州, Wisconsin or Michigan.

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Think about it this way, if the president wins every statelet’s take the three Great Lakes states, 宾夕法尼亚州, 密西根州, 威斯康星州 [和] put them to the side for a second. If the president wins every one of the rest of the states he won in 2016 and carries 宾夕法尼亚州, he’s got 280 选举人票, 10 more than needed,” Rove said.

If he carries 威斯康星州 out of those three states, only Wisconsin, he’s got 270. If he carries 密西根州 out of those three states, and loses Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he’s got 276, so the path to victory lies in these states.

This combination of Sept. 29, file photos shows President Donald Trump, 剩下, and former Vice President Joe Biden during the first presidential debate at Case Western University and Cleveland Clinic, in Cleveland, 俄亥俄. (美联社照片/ Patrick Semansky, 文件)

This combination of Sept. 29, file photos shows President Donald Trump, 剩下, and former Vice President Joe Biden during the first presidential debate at Case Western University and Cleveland Clinic, in Cleveland, 俄亥俄. (美联社照片/ Patrick Semansky, 文件)

The numbers don’t look great for the president in these states though. According to the latest Fox News poll, “Biden leads by 12 points in Michigan (52-40 百分), 5 points in Pennsylvania (50-45 百分), 和 5 points in Wisconsin (49-44 百分).”

This rustbelt strategy also would require Trump to carry every other state he won in 2016, and the numbers are tight in certain Sun Belt states like 北卡罗来纳亚利桑那.

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Ultimately according to Cook Political Report’s latest projection, Democrats have 290 electoral votes in the solid, likely, or lean to the left categories.

共和党人, 与此同时, have 163 electoral votes in the solid, likely, or lean to the right categories. 有 85 electoral votes ranked as a toss-up.

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