But the number of encounters at the US-Mexico border has jumped from April’s low of 16,182 ...에 54,771 arrests in September, indicating that despite attempts to deter migrants from journeying north, conditions in home countries are likely stronger motivators.
“The consensus was that the desire of people to migrate is greater now than it’s ever been because of the economic situation,” Selee said, drawing on discussions with Latin American officials and organizations. “People are making judgments constantly about risk/reward.”
The coronavirus pandemic has taken a dramatic toll on Latin America
, where Covid-19 cases and deaths have soared and economies projected to grow have been decimated
. The decline in economic growth this year
, according to the Congressional Research Service
, is expected to worsen income inequality and poverty in the region
“Before the pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected 1.6% economic growth for the region in 2020 but forecast a recession for several countries. On June 24, 2020, the IMF revised its regional forecast to a contraction of 9.4%, with almost every country in recession,” the study, 10 월 일자 7, 녹이다.
The head of the United Nations regional body for Latin America and the Carribean
, Alicia Bárcena
, said in July that poverty in the region was expected to affect
“거의 230 백만명,” 그것을 추가 “거의 95 million of those are going to be in extreme poverty.
이번달 초, the first major US-bound migrant caravan since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic left San Pedro Sula
, Honduras and crossed into Guatemala
. Director of Guatemala’s Institute for Migration
, Alejandra Mena
1,500 ...에 2,800 people entered Guatemala
The caravan has since been dispersed
, but Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador suggested earlier this month that it might have also been timed to the US presidential election
How would a Biden administration handle this?
The potential for an increase in migrants journeying to the US-Mexico border has been acknowledged by Trump administration officials and the immigrant advocacy community which is preparing detailed recommendations for the Biden campaign on how to scale back strict border measures, according to a source familiar with discussions.
The possibility of a surge presents a conundrum to the Biden camp
, which has pledged to roll back the Trump administration’s strict immigration measures but also grappled behind the scenes about how to do so effectively
Some of those pledges, like repealing regulations that have made seeking asylum in the US exceedingly difficult, could take months. But in the near future, the most urgent challenge for a possible Biden administration might be how to execute on those promises, while acknowledging the potential for a spike in migrants at the US-Mexico border.
There are also thousands of migrants already waiting at the border as part of the Trump administration’s so-called
“remain in Mexico
” 수단, which requires asylum seekers to stay in Mexico until their US court date
. 대법원 said this week it will take up a case challenging the policy
, though it likely won’t be considered until next year
“It’s learning about how you manage influxes. One thing our system has never had is good capacity to rapidly expand to manage and process large numbers of people as they arrive, particularly if it’s not patterns we’ve seen previously,” said Theresa Brown, director of immigration and cross-border policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center.
“If Biden wins and there’s an incoming new administration, they’ll have to consider what policy changes they make,” Brown said.
The intricacies of immigration policy are not new to Biden. The Obama administration also faced influxes in arrivals, including unaccompanied children in 2014.
“The task at hand is two fold in a big picture way: 하나, there needs to be an immediate and speedy rollback of the significant devastation to the already harmful immigration system that the Trump administration has executed over the last 4 연령,” said Alida Garcia, vice president of advocacy at Fwd.us. “But then there’s also the building to the vision, not letting that be enough.”
Part of the strategy on the border might be partnering with nonprofits to assist with processing and ensure that people show up to their immigration hearings, said Kerri Talbot, director of federal advocacy at the Immigration Hub.
“It’s not going to be overnight. That’s the tricky part,” Talbot said. “Everyone will have to push as fast as possible to get that infrastructure up and running.”