福西(Fauci)声称畜群免疫力数字是'猜测',’ 定居 75-80%

Fauci claims herd immunity numbers were 'guestimates,' settles on 75-80%

博士. 安东尼·福西 on Sunday dismissed accusations that he deliberately moved the goalposts on when the country would vaccinate enough people against COVID-19 to reach herd immunity, saying he was previously offeringguestimates.

Reported by some outlets as aconfession,” 福西 告诉《纽约时报》: “When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 至 75 percent …Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, ‘I can nudge this up a bit,’ so I went to 80,85.

In subsequent interviews, Fauci has focused on the other part of that Times report in which he compared COVID-19 to measles, saying at the time thatI’d bet my house that COVID isn’t as contagious as measles.

安东尼·福西, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, attends a Coronavirus Task Force news conference at the White House in Washington, 直流电, 星期五, 四月 10, 2020. 摄影家: Kevin Dietsch/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images

安东尼·福西, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, attends a Coronavirus Task Force news conference at the White House in Washington, 直流电, 星期五, 四月 10, 2020. 摄影家: Kevin Dietsch/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Fauci appeared on Sunday morning’sState of the Union,” reiterating to CNN’s Dana Bash that he based his numbers on measles – not polling.

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Measles is about 98% effective vaccine; the COVID-19 vaccine is about 94%,Fauci said.

When you get below 90% of the population vaccinated with measles, you start seeing a breakthrough against the herd immunity, people starting to get infected, like we saw in upper New York State and in New York City, with the Orthodox Jewish group, when we had the measles outbreak.

So I made a calculation that COVID-19 is not as nearly as transmissible as measles,” Fauci added, stressing that measles isthe most transmissible” 病毒.

代替, Fauci claimed that he madea guestimate,” and he remained firm that a more realistic range would be 75-80% of the Amercian population needing to be vaccinated before the country reaches herd immunity.

“我认为 75-80% for herd immunity for COVID-19 is a reasonable estimate, and in fact, most of my epidemiology colleagues agree with me,” Fauci clarified.

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Fauci said that he’s doing all he can to encourage people, both in the U.S. 和全球, to get the vaccine. He said he uses any discussion or interview to encourage people to reach the threshold for herd immunity.

When pressed as to when he thinks that might be, Fauci speculated that the U.S. might seeopen season– the point at which the vaccine is offered to the general public – around the end of March.

Starting general public vaccinations in April would mean reaching herd immunity around the end of summer, 他加了, despite vaccination numbers reportedly lower than Operation Warp Speed projected a month ago when the vaccines were still awaiting approval.

Whenever you roll out a large program that’s a comprehensive vaccine programwith a brand-new vaccine like this – in the beginning, it starts slow and begins to gain momentum,” Fauci said.

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I’m pretty confident as we gain more momentum, as we transition from December to January and then February and March, I believe we’ll catch up with the projection.

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