The truth is that the margin of error exists in polls, and the Washington Post poll looks a lot more like the average.
Take a look at the polling average in the Virginia governor’s race since the end of August. You’ll see that McAuliffe’s edge has gone from about 5 points in late August to 3 points in late September to a tie today — in other words, slow but clear movement toward Youngkin.
This has come as President Joe Biden’s approval rating has dropped precipitously both nationally and in Virginia
So why would Fox show something so different? 잘, for one thing, the margin of error for the difference between the candidates is about 6 points in their latest poll. 그것은 7 points in their previous survey. This adds up. 추가로, the margin of error doesn’t capture all the potential errors a poll can have.
It’s pretty clear looking at the Fox News poll that it’s likely the political leanings of the people they surveyed changed dramatically from the last poll to this one. President Joe Biden’s net job approval rating (approve – 안된다고 하다) went from +1 points among likely voters last poll to -13 points this poll. Oher polling doesn’t show that dramatic of a decline in the last few weeks.
지금, it’s worth noting the latest Fox News poll could end up being correct. If you examine poll averages in more than 240 gubernatorial elections since 1998, the final averages have a 95% confidence interval of about +/- 12 포인트들.
So if the race is a tie right now, it really shouldn’t be that shocking if either McAuliffe or Youngkin win with some ease. Poll averages can tell you if a race is close or a blowout. They won’t necessarily tell you who will win in a fairly close race.
물론이야, the mere fact that the race in Virginia is so close tells you everything you need to know about the current political environment. Republicans have a real shot of capturing the governor’s mansion in a state that Biden won by 10 points just a year ago and that hasn’t elected a Republican statewide since 2009.
If the outcome matches the Fox News poll, Washington Post poll or average, it’s not a good sign for Democrats going forward.