Drilling in by state, the correlation between the vaccination rates of adults (edad 18 y mas viejo) and those of children (edad 12 a 17) is quite strong. It stands at +0.94 (on a scale of -1 a +1) when looking at those who have received one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, as of Thursday’s CDC report.
By my calculation, all but two of the states in the top 25 for adult vaccinations are in the top 25 for child vaccinations. The inverse is true for the bottom half.
If you were to rank the states from best vaccination rate to worst, the median difference between each state’s spot on the adult list and children’s list is just 3 spots.
(To determine the
12- to 17-year-old vaccination rate by state
, I took the number of age
18+ vaccinated with at least one dose and subtracted it from the age
12+ vaccinated with at least one dose by state
. I then divided by the
12- to 17-year-old population in each state
, de acuerdo con la 2019 Census population estimates
The fact that the same states that have done well in vaccination among children and adults shouldn’t be surprising.
Last month’s Kaiser poll suggested that this would occur
. Among parents who had either been vaccinated or wanted to be immediately
, 48% said they would get their children vaccinated right away
. Among those who said they wouldn’t get vaccinated or would only do so if forced
, sólo 2% said they would get their children vaccinated right away
But even if the data isn’t shocking, it’s only helping to solidify worrisome trends.
One of the biggest divides in the adult vaccination map has been the blue/red state divide I spoke about last week
. Concentrating on the top
25 states for vaccinations of children
, President Joe Biden won
22 of them in last year’s election
. This includes him winning all the top
19. This is similar to him winning
21 of the top
25 states for vaccinations of adults
Likewise, there is a large socioeconomic divide. When it comes to the educational divide, 20 of the top 25 states for child vaccinations are where the number of adults with college degrees is above the average for all states. For adults, su 21 of the top 25 estados.
The top 25 states for child vaccinations are also where poverty rates are lowest. En total, 22 of the top 25 states have child vaccination rates below the national average for poverty rates. For adults, it’s a similar 23 de 25.
Finalmente, the urban/rural divide is basically the same among both groups too. For child vaccination rates, 18 of the top 25 states are places where a larger percentage of the population lives in urban areas than the average state. Among adults, su 17 of the top 25 estados.
The bottom line is that there are going to be places and social circles where getting the virus in the months to come is going to be a lot more difficult than in others. Some social circles (better educated, wealthier and urban) are going to be more immune from the virus because the vast majority of people in them (children and adults) will be vaccinated.
Ojalá, nosotros, como un pais, are able to come up with some strategy to fight this vaccine discrepancy. Otherwise, a lot more people than necessary will be in harm’s way.