Numerous scientists have studied how the 1918 flu spread to become the deadliest pandemic in history and which interventions worked, research that is becoming increasingly relevant during the current coronavirus crisis.
But little research has been done on how environmental conditions affected the 1918 大流行 — 到现在.
的 1918 flu coincided with the final years of the World War I, and it’s been well documented that heavy rain and cold temperatures impacted many battles. 现在, 一项新研究显示 that the cold, rainy weather was part of a once-in-a-century climate anomaly that occurred from 1914 至 1919 and added to the severity of the 1918 大流行.
“We knew before, 当然, from photos and eyewitness testimonies that the battlefields of Europe were really muddy and rainy and soldiers died of all sorts of exposure, even drowning in the mud and the trenches sometimes. What is news is that in fact it was a six-year anomaly and not just one or two instances,” said lead researcher Alexander More, 一个 research associate at Harvard University’s history department and an associate professor at the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute.
A team of more than a dozen scientists collected and analyzed an Alpine ice core to reconstruct the environmental conditions of Europe during the World War I. The process involves using a laser that melts a tiny bit from the ice surface and analyzing the chemicals released from each layer of water vapor. It’s so precise they can pinpoint exact seasons from each layer of ice.
Researchers then compared that ice core data to historical records of deaths during that time period and records of precipitation and temperatures from each month.
The researchers discovered that lingering cold, wet weather during the winters of 1915, 1916 和 1918 was caused by abnormally high rushes of marine air from the North Atlantic. Deaths in Europe peaked three times during World War I and all the spikes occurred during or soon after heavy rain and cold weather, 根据研究.
相片: World War I: A time of upheaval
相片: World War I: A time of upheaval
French soldiers sing the national anthem at the beginning of World War I in August 1914. 这个 “war to end all wars” might seem like ancient history, but it changed the world forever. It transformed the way war was fought, upended cultures and home life and stimulated innovations that affect us today. With more than 30 combatant nations and nearly 70 million men mobilized, World War I profoundly destabilized the international order. Look back at some of the war’s key events.
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The bodies of Austria-Hungary Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, 苏菲, Duchess of Hohenberg, are seen after their assassination by Serbian nationalist Gavrilo Princip on June 28, 1914. The assassination led Austria-Hungary to declare war on Serbia, starting a chain of events that would gradually bring other nations into the fray.
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Germans in Berlin mobilize for war on August 1, 1914. Germany was a strong ally of Austria-Hungary.
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French soldiers are seen at a front-line trench in Italy. During World War I, the Allied Powers consisted of Belgium, 法国, Great Britain, 希腊, Italy, Montenegro, 葡萄牙, 罗马尼亚, 俄国, Serbia and the United States. The Central Powers consisted of Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria, 德国, and Ottoman Empire (now Turkey).
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German soldiers captured by the British are seen in France.
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Men visit the graves of French soldiers killed in the Battle of the Marne in September 1914.
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Troops land at Anzac Cove in the Dardanelles during the battle between Allied forces and Turkish forces at the Gallipoli Peninsula in February 1915. The two sides were fighting for access to the strategic Sea of Marmara and eventually to Constantinople (伊斯坦堡).
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German and British troops are seen together during the Christmas Truce of 1914.
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These French Zouave infantrymen were killed by gas during the Second Battle of Ypres, 比利时, 在四月份 1915.
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Germans give oxygen to a gas victim in 1915. The cloth masks worn by these soldiers provided little defense; more substantial gas masks were not produced until 1916. By the end of the war, even horses and dogs used at the front had their own gas masks.
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German U-boats, or submarines, patrol the Mediterranean coast.
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French troops rest in Verdun, 法国, 在 1916. Verdun was the site of the longest battle of World War I.
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Dead bodies lie piled in a trench at Verdun on April 9, 1916.
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British troops advance during the Battle of the Somme in 1916.
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A British tank is stranded while crossing a trench during the Battle of the Somme on September 25, 1918.
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German soldiers stand near a crashed fighter plane in Germany in 1916.
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Czar Nicholas II of Russia, 对, reviews the palace guard just prior to the Russian Revolution of 1917.
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我们. President Woodrow Wilson addresses a joint session of Congress in April 1917, requesting a declaration of war on Germany. The United States declared war against Germany after the interception and publication of the Zimmermann Telegram and the sinking of three U.S. merchant ships by German U-boats.
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Britons stand in line outside an Army recruiting station.
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A British sergeant major instructs American soldiers in bayonet fighting at Texas’ Camp Dick.
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我们. Army troops stand in a defensive trench in France. By war’s end, thousands of miles of trenches crisscrossed European battlefields.
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A defeated German army marches home on October 1, 1918.
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Armistice Day is celebrated in Chicago on November 1, 1918.
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我们. troops returning home from France are seen on the USS Agamemnon in Hoboken, 新泽西州, 在 1919.
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German delegates listen to French Prime Minister Georges Clemenceau’s speech during the signing of the Treaty of Versailles in France on June 28, 1919.
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“The rain basically matches how many people died. There’s a double peak in the fall of 1918, which is when the second wave and the most lethal wave of the Spanish flu occurred,” More told CNN. “So of course as we’re looking at the second wave of Covid right now and what will happen … this is a warning of what may come.”
The study also shows that this six-year atmospheric anomaly may have disrupted the migratory patterns of several bird species during the war years, including mallard ducks, which are the main animal hosts of H1N1 flu viruses.
That meant more Mallard ducks remained in Europe, where they could continue to transmit the flu to humans through water contaminated with bird droppings.
“It’s interesting to think that very heavy rainfall may have accelerated the spread of the virus,” said Philip Landrigan, director of the Global Public Health Program at Boston College, who is unaffiliated with the new study. “One of the things we’ve learned in the Covid pandemic is that viruses seem to stay viable for longer in humid air than in dry air. So it makes sense that if the air in Europe was full of humidity during those years of World War I, that the transmission of the virus might have been accelerated.”
Climate change and Covid-19
The research on 1918 has eerie similarities to the current crisis, as many parts of the world appear to be entering a second wave of Covid-19, or remain in a prolonged first wave of the virus.
Not only are many parts of the Northern Hemisphere starting to see less warm and sunny weather in the transition to fall, 但 climate change continues to have adverse effects across the globe. 例如, the Atlantic is experiencing one of its busiest hurricane seasons on record.
“It is really the convergence of our two major crises — man-made climate change and infectious disease,” More said. “Absolutely, climate is going to affect the likelihood of infectious disease outbreaks. It has in the past and it will in the future.”
According to More, the same patterns created by climate anomalies that affected the severity and spread of the 1918 flu pandemic are happening right now. And Covid-19 is not the only infectious disease impacted by climate change.
“Many other ongoing epidemics are affected by climate and especially man-made climate change. 例如, zika and dengue fever are transmitted by mosquitoes, and now those mosquitoes are reaching places that they never reached before,” 他说. “The same can be said about other bacteria and diseases throughout the world.”
In an unprecedented year that seems to bring one crisis after another, climate scientists say that it’s important to look at the connections between them, and how climate-related issues such as extreme weather, storm surges, 野火, and homelessness created in the wake of natural disasters can create adverse conditions that allow infectious diseases to spread more easily.
“There’s no question that they are connected,” More said, adding that more interdisciplinary research is needed to better understand the links between climate change and pandemics.
