More folks are voting early than ever before. 월요일 오후 현재, 이상 60 지금까지 백만 명이 투표했습니다.. 그것은 우리가이 시점에서 있었던 것을 능가 할뿐만 아니라 2016, it blows past the total number of people who voted early that year.
While early voting can’t tell us the eventual outcome from this election, we can say that the data we’re seeing so far in the early vote are consistent with what the pre-election polling has indicated.
다시 말해, nothing in the early vote data makes me doubt the pre-election polling data. This is a good sign for those hoping that the polling miscues of 2016 don’t repeat themselves.
Let’s just start with the simple fact that so many voters are turning out. 에 대한 well over a year now, I’ve been arguing that we are going to see record turnout. The reason is that many more voters said they were enthusiastic and certain that they were going to vote in this election than usual.
Our most recent CNN/SSRS 설문조사, 예를 들어, 발견했다 88% of registered voters said they were likely to vote. That’s up from 83% from a similar CNN poll taken in October 2016.
ㅏ model put together by FiveThirtyEight based primarily on how enthusiastic voters say they are is forecasting the same thing. They have turnout reaching 154 백만명. That’s up from a little less than 140 백만 에 2016.
로 percentage of the voting eligible population, we could be looking at the highest turnout for a presidential election since 18 year olds got the vote in 1971.
A side effect of high turnout is that it has the potential for making the polls more accurate as well. A lot of problems in polling can come from trying to figure out which voters are more likely to actually turn out and vote. That’s why polls are often less accurate in primaries and municipal elections, when turnout is lower.
It’s easier to know if someone is a registered voter than if they’re a likely voter. If turnout is higher, the likely voter universe has a better chance of matching the registered voter universe.
그만큼 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll 올해, 예를 들어, hasn’t even published a likely voter result.
The turnout from places like North Carolina and Florida look to be confirming another important trend in the polling: Republicans are much more likely to turn out in-person, while Democrats are more likely to vote by mail.
민주당 leaped out to a large lead in mail-in voting in Florida and North Carolina. The same has been true in other states such as Pennsylvania.
But look at what is happening in North Carolina and Florida, when comparing the early in-person voting in those states to the mail-in voting.
In both states, the in-person voting bloc is significantly friendlier to Republicans than the vote-by-mail portion of the electorate. In Florida, Republicans are making up a larger chunk of in-person early voters than are Democrats. This is the reverse of what we’ve seen in prior years.
다시, this generally conforms to the expectations of those following the polls.
I should point out that none of these facts guarantees the polls are going to be right on the money. In politics, the difference between 48% 과 51% is all the difference in the world.
아직도, the data we’re seeing leads me to believe that we shouldn’t be anticipating a polling miss in one direction or another. If one does occur, it’s going to be some yet undiagnosed reason.
