* Barack Obama 40% (At several points in 2013 en 2014)
* George W.. Bush 25% (Oktober 2008)
* Bill Clinton 37% (Junie 1993)
* George H.W. Bush 29% (July/August 1992)
* Ronald Reagan 35% (Januarie 1983)
Die gemiddeld of the lowest job approval ratings of the six previous president is 33%.
Nou, let’s dig into some details.
The lowest approval rating among the group is George W. Bush in the fall of 2008. Wat het gebeur?
In the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001, terreuraanvalle — very early in his presidency — Bush’s job approval rating soared to 90% (not a typo) in Gallup polling. But for the rest of his White House tenure, his numbers dropped and dropped and dropped.
As the Pew Research Center wrote in its overview of Bush’s job approval
“American deaths continued in Iraq, the government bungled the response to the devastating Hurricane Katrina in late 2005 and political scandal reached directly into the White House. Binnekort, economic troubles started to mount, en in 2008, the economy went into a dangerous free fall that led to controversial and expensive government intervention in financial markets.”
Then there’s Trump, who never experienced anything close to the polling highs of Bush. Trump started his presidency at 44% goedkeuring, according to Gallup, and never saw that number go above 49% in the firm’s surveys. While Trump’s (low) numbers were generally consistent, his worst approval ratings came at the very end of his term, as even some of the people who had been for him turned in the wake of the January 6, 2021, insurrection at the US Capitol.
What does all of that tell us?
That there’s a possibility that Biden’s numbers go lower.
The presidents whose approval ratings are below where Biden is today were battered by a series of crises on a variety of fronts. Watter, wel, seems to fit Biden. He continues to struggle amid the public’s concerns over inflation, gas prices and the (steeds) ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.
That’s not to say that Biden isn’t at his bottom now, but just rather to note that the factors that have driven past presidents’ approval ratings lower do exist for him at the moment.
That all should result in further panic running through the Democratic Party
. The single biggest predictor of how a president’s party will do in a midterm election is what that president’s approval looks like
. Asof 2018, die average House seat loss when a president’s job approval is below
50% is 37 sitplekke, according to Gallup
. (When a president is over
50% goedkeuring, the average seat loss for his party is
So while it remains to be seen if Biden will keep sinking or whether his numbers will stabilize somewhat, it’s already clear that he is very, very likely to be a drag on the Democrats in four months’ tyd.