How low can Joe Biden go in the polls?

在一个新的 Monmouth University poll, 只是 36% of Americans approve of the job Joe Biden is doingthe lowest mark of his presidency to date in the survey.

Which raises a simple but profound question: How low can Biden go? 鱼子几乎是法律, is there a built-in floor for Biden’s approval rating? Or might he continue to trend lower and lower?
The best way to figure out what the future might hold is to look at what the past tells us. And luckily, we have the Gallup Presidential Job Approval Center, which has approval numbers for every president going back to Harry Truman.
    Let’s look then at where recent presidents bottomed out in terms of job approval.
      * 唐纳德·特朗普 34% (一月 2021)
        * 巴拉克奥巴马 40% (At several points in 2013 和 2014)
        * 乔治·W. 衬套 25% (十月 2008)
          * 比尔·克林顿 37% (六月 1993)
          * 乔治·H·W. 衬套 29% (July/August 1992)
          * Ronald Reagan 35% (一月 1983)
          average of the lowest job approval ratings of the six previous president is 33%.
          现在, let’s dig into some details.
          The lowest approval rating among the group is George W. Bush in the fall of 2008. 发生了什么?
          In the immediate aftermath of the September 11, 2001, 恐怖袭击 — very early in his presidencyBush’s job approval rating soared to 90% (not a typo) in Gallup polling. But for the rest of his White House tenure, his numbers dropped and dropped and dropped.
          As the Pew Research Center wrote in its overview of Bush’s job approval:
          American deaths continued in Iraq, the government bungled the response to the devastating Hurricane Katrina in late 2005 and political scandal reached directly into the White House. 很快, economic troubles started to mount, 和在 2008, the economy went into a dangerous free fall that led to controversial and expensive government intervention in financial markets.
          Then there’s Trump, who never experienced anything close to the polling highs of Bush. Trump started his presidency at 44% 赞同, 根据盖洛普, and never saw that number go above 49% in the firm’s surveys. While Trump’s (低) numbers were generally consistent, his worst approval ratings came at the very end of his term, as even some of the people who had been for him turned in the wake of the January 6, 2021, 美国国会大厦的暴动.
          What does all of that tell us?
          That there’s a possibility that Biden’s numbers go lower.
          The presidents whose approval ratings are below where Biden is today were battered by a series of crises on a variety of fronts. Which, 好, seems to fit Biden. He continues to struggle amid the public’s concerns over inflation, gas prices and the (仍然) ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.
          That’s not to say that Biden isn’t at his bottom now, but just rather to note that the factors that have driven past presidentsapproval ratings lower 如果你还没有尝试过 exist for him at the moment.
            That all should result in further panic running through the Democratic Party. The single biggest predictor of how a president’s party will do in a midterm election is what that president’s approval looks like. 作为 2018, 的 average House seat loss when a president’s job approval is below 50% 是 37 座位, 根据盖洛普. (When a president is over 50% 赞同, the average seat loss for his party is 14 seats.)
            So while it remains to be seen if Biden will keep sinking or whether his numbers will stabilize somewhat, it’s already clear that he is very, very likely to be a drag on the Democrats in four months’ 时间.