Each week on my “Margins of Error” ポッドキャスト, we discuss topics that seem to be on the margins at first glance but that are actually where knowledge and discovery really begin. Recent episodes covered cremation and couples sleeping apart. All episodes are based on data points that, when explored further, reveal much more about American politics, culture and behavior.
Our technological arrangement is a sign of just how dramatically communication methods have changed over the last 25 年, with society becoming less reliant on talking on the phone.
That change has had a big impact on something I think a lot about: ポーリング.
It used to be that polls I wrote about were conducted all by phone with live interviewers calling landlines.
That’s no longer the case
. A majority of Americans no longer have landlines
. As a millennial
, I am one of those Americans who only own cell phones
Pollsters still call phones
, but they’re mostly calling cell phones
. Even then
, でも, many Americans who own cell phones aren’t picking up when called
. As I explore in the latest episode of my “Margins of Error” ポッドキャスト
, I don’t like answering the phone
. 実際には, unexpected phone calls make me nervous
. Turns out I’m not alone
. Young people such as I are less likely to answer those polling calls than are older Americans
, による Pew Research Center
. To compensate
, pollsters must weight up the young people who do respond
. あれは, the responses for young people who take part in the poll count for a little bit more because they initially make up less of the sample than they do in the population at large
It’s not just millennials who aren’t picking up the phone to talk to pollsters
. Response rates to polls have fallen off significantly in the overall population
, あまりにも. This trend
, in tandem with the rise of cell phones
, has made polling by phone quite expensive because it takes a lot of time to get a completed interview
. (Unlike with landlines
, each cell phone must be dialed individually by hand because of federal law.
もちろん, today’s smartphones mean that a cell phone isn’t just for making and receiving calls
. Most smartphones allow you to take a poll over the internet
, and most Americans own them
, によると Washington Post-University of Maryland survey
昨年. The majority
(53%) of senior citizens own smartphones
, so this isn’t just a young person phenomenon
This is one big reason that there have been a lot more pollsters who conduct their surveys over the internet. Although it’s a few decades old, it’s really over the last 10 years that polling over the internet has gone up tremendously. Most of the polls I look at today have internet components. 実際には, it’s no longer clear that polls conducted by phone are more accurate than those conducted over the internet.
Online polls are good news for people like me who care about politics but get anxious about talking on the phone. Some people have such a bad case of this anxiety that they have what’s known as “phone phobia.” 確かに, there are actual coaches who teach people how to talk on the phone and get over their fears.
We’ll speak with someone who does exactly that on this week’s podcast episode. We’ll also chat with my mom about my issues.
So if you’re somebody who has trouble speaking on the phone or just wants to hear my mom tell me off, you’ll want to tune in.
Get the latest episodes of “Margins of Error” as soon as they drop. Find it in Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast app.