If the polls were exactly right, McAuliffe would greatly underperform Biden’s win last year and current Gov. Ralph Northam’s win in the 2017 governor’s race. They won by 10 puntos y 9 puntos, respectivamente. The drop in McAuliffe’s position relative to other Democrats shouldn’t be surprising given that Biden’s net approval in the state in recent polling has averaged about -2 puntos.
Todavía, a lead is a lead, and McAuliffe is outrunning Biden’s net popularity rating by a little less than 5 puntos.
The same polling reveals that Trump remains deeply unpopular in the state
. A Fox News poll released last week had his net favorability rating
) a -9 points among likely voters and
-18 points among registered voters
. Trump’s more unpopular than McAuliffe or Youngkin
, who both sported positive net favorability ratings in the Fox News poll among likely voters
This seems to matter.
You can see how closely feelings toward Trump and vote choice align by looking at the crosstabs of the Fox News poll. On a scale of -1 a +1, the correlation across demographic groups between Trump’s unfavorable rating and McAuliffe’s standing in the horse race was over +0.98. You rarely get that type of correlation between the popularity of an out-of-office politician and vote choice. It’s nearly the same as Biden’s popularity and vote choice (sobre +0.99 correlation).
Por supuesto, a CBS News/YouGov poll from Virginia shows just how motivating a factor Trump is in whether voters cast a ballot
. A majority of likely voters
(51%) said feelings about Trump were very motivating
. That’s basically the same as the
48% who said the same thing about their feelings toward Biden
Separate polling from a Monmouth University poll in August showed that about the same share of Virginia voters indicated that Trump was a major factor in their
2021 vote as they did in
This is something we’re seeing nationally as well. Trump continues to cast a shadow in a way I’m not sure we fully appreciate.
Over the last week
, Trump actually slightly leads Biden in the number of people searching for them on Google
. During the same week in Trump’s presidency
, he led former President Barack Obama by nearly a
9:1 ratio in searches
. And in the same week in Obama’s presidency
, Obama led former President George W
. Bush by over a
9:1 ratio in searches
Trump being this much in the spotlight probably hurts Republicans more than it helps
. Trump had a
-13 point net favorability rating in a Quinnipiac University poll
esta semana. Biden’s was
-12 points in the same poll
. Other polls have Biden’s net popularity ratings in a somewhat better
, though still negative
An incumbent president in negative territory in their net popularity rating would usually spell doom for the president’s party in the midterms. I’d still bet on that being the case.
But right now
, Democrats maintain a low single-digit lead on the generic congressional ballot
. That’s not much different than their 3-point win in the House popular vote in
Por supuesto, we’ll just have to wait and see what happens going forward. If Youngkin ends up emerging with a win in Virginia, it’s going to be tough for people to argue that Trump is hurting Republicans that much.
Si, on the other hand, McAuliffe is the victor, it will likely lead to plenty of discussion about whether it’s good for Republicans to continue to have Trump this present on the political scene.