What’s interesting when you look at the other states with really high turnout in
2022 comparado con 2018 (e.g.
) is that they all had competitive primaries for governor or US Senate
. Kansas didn’t have either
And while Georgia and Pennsylvania did have higher statewide turnout in their partisan primaries than Kansas, relative to 2018, Kansas had higher relative turnout when including how many people turned out for the abortion amendment.
Dicho de otra manera, it’s very clear the abortion amendment drove turnout in Kansas in a way that the political environment without abortion on the ballot has not been able to.
This is especially the case with who turned out
. Of all people who voted in a statewide Democratic or Republican primary in Kansas
, sobre 37% cast a ballot in the Democratic primary
. The fact that Republicans made up a larger share of the primary vote shouldn’t be a surprise given how Republican Kansas is
What’s key here is that four years ago, 33% of Kansas primary voters who cast ballots in the major-party primaries did so on the Democratic side. En otras palabras, Democratic-leaning voters made up a larger share of the electorate in 2022 que 2018.
This 4-point increase is the largest so far this primary season
. Por supuesto, by my count
, Oregón is the only other state where Democrats made up a larger share of the voters this year than four years ago
So far this season, the Democratic percentage of the major-party primary votes cast has been down 7 points from 2018, general.
The question is whether what happened with the turnout in Kansas has national implications.
The turnout pattern in Kansas jibes with what the national polling has suggested
. Demócratas, much more so than Republicans
, have said the decision to overturn Roe v
. Wade has motivated them to vote
. igualmente, abortion rights supporters have said it makes them more enthusiastic to vote compared with anti-abortion voters
There are going to be a number of states (e.g., Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) where the Democratic and Republican nominees for governor will have very different views on abortion. The Kansas turnout pattern seems to suggest that abortion could be a motivating factor to get more Democrats to vote.
On other hand, there were other primary contests last night (es decir. Michigan and Missouri) where the turnout pattern did not differ substantially from the norm this cycle, with Republicans coming out in larger numbers than Democrats compared with four years ago. It’s possible that without abortion directly on the ballot, Democrats won’t be as energized.
Todavía, if Democrats were looking for a hopeful sign ahead of the midterms, Kansas is definitely a bright spot.