意見: 共和党とその候補者のために, Trump's endorsement isn't the most important thing

ダグラス・ヘイは、元ハウスマジョリティリーダーのエリック・カンターの元副首席補佐官です。, 共和党のストラテジストとCNNの政治評論家. Twitterで彼をフォローしてください @dougheye. この解説で表明された意見は彼自身のものです. もっと見る 意見 CNNで.

Conversation surrounding the Republican primaries has been dominated by assessing the effect a Donald Trump endorsement has on the race. I speak with political reporters nearly every day about these races, and it seems that nearly everything is filtered through anAll Things Trumpprism.

ダグラス・ヘイ

If a Trump-backed candidate wins, it’s presented as abig winfor the former President. That’s how many viewed J.D. Vance’s victory in the GOP Senate primary in Ohio.
    If a Trump-backed candidate loses, 一方, it’s seen as a stinging rebuke.
      But the results so far actually reveal a different storyand suggest it’s time to stop viewing Trump as a bellwether of all things about the GOP.
        Trump’s endorsement certainly gave Vance’s then-flagging campaign a boostas did millions in outside spending by Peter Thielbut if you look past the reporting and the money, のみ 32% of Ohio Republicans voted for Vance. または, looked at another way, 68% of Ohio Republicans were apparently unswayed by Trump’s endorsement.
        Donald Trump faces his biggest primary test yet

          見ただけ

          Donald Trump faces his biggest primary test yet

        見なければならない

        Donald Trump faces his biggest primary test yet 05:42

        And in North Carolina Tuesday night, トランプ支持, beleaguered Congressman Madison Cawthorn not only lost the primary, but gained just under 32% 投票の — as an incumbent. 確かに, 68% of Republicans in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District rejected a last-minute, doubling-down, “Let’s give Madison a second chanceplea from Trump.
          Meanwhile in Pennsylvania, the Trump-backed Dr. Mehmet Oz is locked in a still-too-close-to-call race with David McCormick, whom Trump attacked at a Pennsylvania rally earlier this month. The race seems likely headed to an automatic recount, but regardless of its outcome, the sum of Republicans who chose not to vote for Trump’s chosen candidate will tell a compelling story.
          Whether they result in a win, a loss or a race that’s too close to call, the numbers for Vance, Cawthorn and Oz paint a strikingly similar picture, one that suggests two things: 1) the size of the Trump base among GOP primary voters is consistent, but small and 2) Trump’s endorsement, while helpful, is nowhere near being a golden ticket.
          Kaitlan Collins: マディソン・コーソーン's loss is telling of where GOP's base stands

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            Kaitlan Collins: Madison Cawthorn’s loss is telling of where GOP’s base stands

          見なければならない

          Kaitlan Collins: Madison Cawthorn’s loss is telling of where GOP’s base stands 01:56

          確かに, インクルード “Trump bumpthat comes with an endorsement has never guaranteed any candidate to be the favorite. These three candidates are nowhere near 50% support among GOP primary voters. In in the case of Dr. オズ, 一部の共和党員 loudly protested Trump’s endorsement, while in Alabama, Trump’s endorsement of Congressman Mo Brooks had so little effect, それ Trump took it back.
          Trump-backed Senate candidate Ted Budd did win Tuesday’s primary in North Carolina with just over 58%. But Trump’s endorsement of Budd last summer did not fundamentally alter the race at the time. Budd’s advantage came after a long campaign, during which Budd faced uninspired opposition and the Club for Growth (a sometimes Trump rival) put in millions in pro-Budd spending. Many North Carolina political operatives, including this one, thought the race was Budd’s to lose well before the Trump endorsement.
          Budd’s victory demonstrated the importance of having quality candidates and of running a good campaign. It’s why in Georgia, incumbent Governor Brian Kemp is expected to easily defeat the Trump-endorsed former US Senator David Perdue next week. And it affirmed that election rulesvoter thresholds, open or closed primaries, early and absentee votingmight not fit into a tidy, viewer-friendly narrative, but matter enormously.
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          As a Budd campaign official told me earlier this month, a Trump endorsement opens the door to GOP primary voters, but it doesn’t seal the deal. 言い換えると, the candidates and the campaigns have to win it on their own.
            The media may continue posting Trump-based scorecards like a Preakness Stakes tip sheet. Looking at these candidates, all of whom on some level campaigned as Trump supporters, tells us that, regardless of endorsement, Trumpism isn’t going anywhere in the Republican Party.
            How we focus our party on a future that isn’t defined by Trump is a more important, and more challenging, story to tell. And it’s one that won’t be told as long as we collectively have Trump on the brain.

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