And on Monday, Trump doubled down:
“Big election tomorrow in the Great State of Texas! Susan Wright supports America First policies, our Military and our Veterans, is strong on Borders, tough on Crime, Pro-Life, and will always protect our Second Amendment. She will serve the people in the 6th Congressional District of Texas, and our Country, very well. Susan has my Complete and Total Endorsement. “
Trump’s Save America PAC put money behind those words
, gasto $ 100,000 en last-minute ads for her
— and recording a robocall to help drive turnout for her
But Susan Wright lost to state Rep
. Jake Ellzey
. And it wasn’t all that close
— 53% a 47%
That means that Trump’s record in special elections so far in
2021 es 1-1. (Él tuvo previously endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow, who ran and won to replace her late husband who also died of Covid-19.
, is a pretty small sample size
. But Ballotpedia has been keeping a running count of Trump endorsees
— and their fates
— which gives us a broader and better look at the former president’s actual record
Ballotpedia breaks Trump endorsements into three categories: 1) General elections 2) Special elections 3) Battleground primaries (i.e., primaries that are competitive). Here’s his record in each of those during the 2020 Campaña:
* General elections: 141-42 (77%)
* Special elections: 3-2 (60%)
* Battleground primaries: 21-2 (91%)
Let’s go through each of those categories.
In general elections
, Trump has always padded his stats by endorsing lots and lots of incumbents who face almost zero chance of losing
. Trump did a LOT of this in the
. Por ejemplo, he endorsed Rep
. James Comer in Kentucky’s 1st district
; Comer won with 75% in a seat that Trump won by almost 50 puntos
. No one thought Comer was losing
. Trump’s endorsement had nothing to do with that fact
Special elections are unique even within the world of campaign politics. They are often scheduled at odd times — late July in an off-year is not a traditional voting time in Texas, por ejemplo — and that produces low and odd turnouts. Any endorser, therefore, is going to struggle to make the right pick in special elections. They tend to be the gambling equivalent of a “pick ’em” — meaning no one really knows what’s going to happen.
The one place where it’s clear that Trump’s endorsement does matter is in contested Republican primaries. A 21-2 record is very, very good — and suggests that if Trump endorses you in a normally scheduled primary, you are very likely to win.
Taken together, the numbers suggest that a Republican candidate — whether incumbent or challenger — still very much wants to have Trump’s endorsement.
But that endorsement isn’t a guarantor of victory — no matter what Trump says.