E lunedì, Trump doubled down:
“Big election tomorrow in the Great State of Texas! Susan Wright supports America First policies, our Military and our Veterans, is strong on Borders, tough on Crime, Pro-Life, and will always protect our Second Amendment. She will serve the people in the 6th Congressional District of Texas, and our Country, ottimo. Susan has my Complete and Total Endorsement. “
Trump’s Save America PAC put money behind those words
, spesa $ 100,000 su last-minute ads for her
— and recording a robocall to help drive turnout for her
But Susan Wright perduto to state Rep
. Jake Ellzey
. And it wasn’t all that close
— 53% per 47%
That means that Trump’s record in special elections so far in
2021 è 1-1. (Lui aveva previously endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow, who ran and won to replace her late husband who also died of Covid-19.
, is a pretty small sample size
. But Ballotpedia has been keeping a running count of Trump endorsees
— and their fates
— which gives us a broader and better look at the former president’s actual record
Ballotpedia breaks Trump endorsements into three categories: 1) General elections 2) Special elections 3) Battleground primaries (i.e., primaries that are competitive). Here’s his record in each of those during the 2020 campagna:
* General elections: 141-42 (77%)
* Special elections: 3-2 (60%)
* Battleground primaries: 21-2 (91%)
Let’s go through each of those categories.
In general elections
, Trump has always padded his stats by endorsing lots and lots of incumbents who face almost zero chance of losing
. Trump did a LOT of this in the
2020 ciclo. Per esempio, he endorsed Rep
. James Comer in Kentucky’s 1st district
; Comer won with 75% in a seat that Trump won by almost 50 punti
. No one thought Comer was losing
. Trump’s endorsement had nothing to do with that fact
Special elections are unique even within the world of campaign politics. They are often scheduled at odd times — late July in an off-year is not a traditional voting time in Texas, per esempio — and that produces low and odd turnouts. Any endorser, perciò, is going to struggle to make the right pick in special elections. They tend to be the gambling equivalent of a “pick ’em” — meaning no one really knows what’s going to happen.
The one place where it’s clear that Trump’s endorsement does matter is in contested Republican primaries. UN 21-2 record is very, very good — and suggests that if Trump endorses you in a normally scheduled primary, you are very likely to win.
Taken together, the numbers suggest that a Republican candidate — whether incumbent or challenger — still very much wants to have Trump’s endorsement.
But that endorsement isn’t a guarantor of victory — no matter what Trump says.