El campo de juego de la Casa está casi listo. Y se inclina bastante hacia los republicanos.

Con el proceso de redistribución de distritos ahora más o menos completo, tenemos una visión relativamente clara de cómo será el campo de juego de la Casa.

la respuesta corta: Bien por los republicanos. Y potencialmente muy bueno para ellos..
Our ratings currently show 214 races at least leaning to the Republicans, 193 at least leaning to the Democrats, y 28 toss-upsa clear edge for Republicans,” wrote Kyle Kondik for the Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.
    Para poner eso en perspectiva, Demócratas currently hold 220 asientos, while Republicans control 208. Seven seatsfive previously held by Republicans, two by Democratsare currently vacant.
      The disparity in opportunity is clear when you pull out only the most competitive House contests.
        The Crystal Ball rates seven Republican-held seats astoss-upsand another three aslean Republican.One GOP-held seat is listed aslean Democratic.
        Demócratas, por el contrario, tengo 21 seats rated astoss-ups” y 14 seats aslean Democratic.” Más, the party has eight seats categorized aslean Republicanand three seats aslikely Republican.
          Do the math and you see that Democrats have roughly four times as many very vulnerable House seats as Republicans.
          And the Crystal Ball is far from alone in its projections.
          The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, another widely respected political handicapping service, lleva 24 Democratic-held House seats in itstoss-upcategory, compared to nine Republican-held seats. Cook also rates 10 Democratic seats as either leaning or likely Republican.
          And like the Crystal Ball, Cook has only one Republican-held seat — Illinois’ 13th Districtrated aslean Democratic” o peor.
          Ahora, it’s worth noting here that simply because a seat is rated as a toss-up (o peor) doesn’t mean it’s lost for the party that holds it. Campaigns and candidates matteras does the political environment in which they are running.
          But at least on the environment front, the news is not good for Democrats either.
            President Joe Biden’s approval ratings are consistently stuck in the low 40s (o peor), with very little to suggest that will change appreciably between now and November. Inflation remains a problem. The average gas price nationally is now approaching $ 5 por galon.
            El punto: Add it all up and Republicans have every reason to be confident that they will not only retake the House in November, but also have a comfortable margin with which to govern.




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