The House playing field is nearly set. And it tilts pretty far Republican.

With the redistricting process now more or less complete, we have a relatively clear view of what the House playing field will look like.

The short answer: Good for Republicans. And potentially very good for them.
Our ratings currently show 214 races at least leaning to the Republicans, 193 at least leaning to the Democrats, 和 28 toss-upsa clear edge for Republicans,” wrote Kyle Kondik for the Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.
    正确看待这一点, 民主党人 currently hold 220 座位, while Republicans control 208. Seven seatsfive previously held by Republicans, two by Democratsare currently vacant.
      The disparity in opportunity is clear when you pull out only the most competitive House contests.
        The Crystal Ball rates seven Republican-held seats astoss-upsand another three aslean Republican.One GOP-held seat is listed aslean Democratic.
        民主党人, 相比之下, 有 21 seats rated astoss-ups” 和 14 seats aslean Democratic.” 加, the party has eight seats categorized aslean Republicanand three seats aslikely Republican.
          Do the math and you see that Democrats have roughly four times as many very vulnerable House seats as Republicans.
          And the Crystal Ball is far from alone in its projections.
          The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, another widely respected political handicapping service, 携带 24 Democratic-held House seats in itstoss-up” 类别, compared to nine Republican-held seats. Cook also rates 10 Democratic seats as either leaning or likely Republican.
          And like the Crystal Ball, Cook has only one Republican-held seat — 伊利诺伊州’ 13第区 — rated aslean Democraticor worse.
          现在, it’s worth noting here that simply because a seat is rated as a toss-up (or worse) doesn’t mean it’s lost for the party that holds it. Campaigns and candidates matteras does the political environment in which they are running.
          But at least on the environment front, the news is not good for Democrats either.
            President Joe Biden’s approval ratings are consistently stuck in the low 40s (or worse), with very little to suggest that will change appreciably between now and November. Inflation remains a problem. The average gas price nationally is now approaching $ 5 per gallon.
            重点: Add it all up and Republicans have every reason to be confident that they will not only retake the House in November, but also have a comfortable margin with which to govern.

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