Hillary Clinton won contests containing
232 electoral votes
. Were Biden to hold the Clinton states
(and polls indicate that he probably will
), he needs to find an extra
38 electoral votes
Those extra 38 electoral votes are likely to come from the six closest states Trump won in 2016: Arizona (11 electoral votes), Florida (29 electoral votes), Michigan (16 electoral votes), Carolina del Norte (15 electoral votes), Pensilvania (20 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). You can also add in the one electoral vote from Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, which Trump won by just 2 points in 2016.
(Nebraska, like Maine, gives an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district.)
Ahora, look at the polling aggregates in each of those contests
- Michigan: Biden +8 points
- Wisconsin: Biden +8 points
- Pensilvania: Biden +7 points
- Nebraska’s 2nd District: Biden +7 points
- Carolina del Norte: Biden +3 points
What you see here is a pretty clear divide between the Great Lake and Sunbelt states
. Biden has advantages of
7 points to
8 points in the Great Lakes
, while his leads are
3 a 4 points in the Sunbelt
. Nebraska’s Second District is really not part of either region
, though it is part of the Midwest
(where the Great Lakes is mostly situated
) y lacks the racial diversity of the Sunbelt states
The key in these poll numbers is that Biden doesn’t actually need Arizona, Florida or North Carolina to win. Just by winning in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and holding the Clinton states, Biden gets to 278 electoral votes.
Obviously, that map doesn’t leave Biden a lot of room for error, but it is good enough.
, statistical models suggest that Pennsylvania is the state most likely to determine the Electoral College winner in
An examination of the demographic voting patterns in the last few cycles and national polls indicate that Biden’s relative strength in the Great Lakes makes a lot of sense.
Remember that Michigan
, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin formed part of what was deemed
“the blue wall
” heading into the 2016 elección
. All three states had voted Democratic in every presidential election since
Trump was able to break through that blue wall because of his strength among White voters without a college degree
. These voters make up about
50% or more of the voters in Michigan
, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
. They make up a significantly lower percentage in the Sunbelt
, which is more racially diverse
The live interview national polls taken since the first debate have Trump winning White voters without a college degree by about 17 points nationally. That may seem like a big lead, but Trump led among that group by 30 points in the final pre-election polls in 2016.
Trump’s declining support among White voters without a college degree is bigger than his declining support overall and has been consistent throughout this cycle
. mientras tanto, Biden’s been at best matching and usually underperforming Clinton among Negro
votantes, who are a far bigger factor in the Sunbelt than Great Lakes
Adicionalmente, Biden’s been doing about 10 points better among White voters overall and nearly 20 points better among White women than Clinton did. All of these trends manifest more greatly in the Great Lakes than Sunbelt.
Importantly, you’ll note that the comparison here controls for the Great Lake poll misses in 2016. We’re focusing on the national polls, which were largely accurate in 2016. también, we’re doing an apples-to-apples comparison between pre-election polls then and now.
And if you still don’t believe the polls
, just look at the results in
2018 and the actions of the Biden campaign
. House Democrats did significantly better in Michigan
, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than in Arizona
, Florida and North Carolina
. They also won the governorship and Senate races in Michigan
, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in
There’s a reason why Biden based his campaign in Philadelphia and has been outspending Trump by factors of greater than
2:1 in Michigan
, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
For Trump to win, he’ll probably need to knock down the big blue wall again. If he can’t, Biden’s probably the next president.