This is Joe Biden's best electoral path

A big question heading into this cycle was whether 民主党人’ best path to winning back the White House ran through the Sunbelt or the Great Lakes (i.e. Rust Belt). While we won’t know for certain which pathway was best for them until the votes are actually counted, the current data shows a pretty clear divide.

If former 副总统拜登 is to win this election, his best chance probably runs through the Great Lakes.
Two new polls out Sunday morning are demonstrative of a larger trend. Biden was up 51% 至 46% 在一个 CBS News/YouGov poll in Wisconsin. CBS News/YouGov also found Biden at 50% 至 唐纳德·特朗普总统的 47% 在亚利桑那州, a result well within the margin of error.
These polls taken in isolation wouldn’t be that noteworthy, but they speak to the larger aggregate.
    希拉里·克林顿 won contests containing 232 选举人票. Were Biden to hold the Clinton states (and polls indicate that he probably will), he needs to find an extra 38 选举人票.
    Those extra 38 electoral votes are likely to come from the six closest states Trump won in 2016: 亚利桑那 (11 选举人票), 佛罗里达 (29 选举人票), 密西根州 (16 选举人票), 北卡罗来纳 (15 选举人票), 宾夕法尼亚州 (20 选举人票) and Wisconsin (10 选举人票). You can also add in the one electoral vote from Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, which Trump won by just 2 点入 2016.
    (内布拉斯加, like Maine, gives an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district.)
    现在, look at the polling aggregates in each of those contests.
    • 密西根州: 拜登 +8 点数
    • 威斯康星州: 拜登 +8 点数
    • 宾夕法尼亚州: 拜登 +7 点数
    • Nebraska’s 2nd District: 拜登 +7 点数
    • 亚利桑那: 拜登 +4 点数
    • 佛罗里达: 拜登 +4 点数
    • 北卡罗来纳: 拜登 +3 点数
    What you see here is a pretty clear divide between the Great Lake and Sunbelt states. Biden has advantages of 7 points to 8 points in the Great Lakes, while his leads are 3 至 4 points in the Sunbelt. Nebraska’s Second District is really not part of either region, though it is part of the Midwest (where the Great Lakes is mostly situated) 和 lacks the racial diversity of the Sunbelt states.
    The key in these poll numbers is that Biden doesn’t actually need Arizona, Florida or North Carolina to win. Just by winning in Michigan, 威斯康星州, Pennsylvania and holding the Clinton states, Biden gets to 278 选举人票.

    明显, that map doesn’t leave Biden a lot of room for error, but it is good enough.
    这并不奇怪, statistical models suggest that Pennsylvania is the state most likely to determine the Electoral College winner in 2020.
    An examination of the demographic voting patterns in the last few cycles and national polls indicate that Biden’s relative strength in the Great Lakes makes a lot of sense.
    Remember that Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin formed part of what was deemedthe blue wallheading into the 2016 选举. All three states had voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992.
    Trump was able to break through that blue wall because of his strength among White voters without a college degree. These voters make up about 50% or more of the voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They make up a significantly lower percentage in the Sunbelt, which is more racially diverse.
    The live interview national polls taken since the first debate have Trump winning White voters without a college degree by about 17 points nationally. That may seem like a big lead, but Trump led among that group by 30 points in the final pre-election polls in 2016.
    Trump’s declining support among White voters without a college degree is bigger than his declining support overall and has been consistent throughout this cycle. 与此同时, Biden’s been at best matching and usually underperforming Clinton among 黑色西班牙裔 选民, who are a far bigger factor in the Sunbelt than Great Lakes.
    另外, Biden’s been doing about 10 points better among White voters overall and nearly 20 points better among White women than Clinton did. All of these trends manifest more greatly in the Great Lakes than Sunbelt.
    Importantly, you’ll note that the comparison here controls for the Great Lake poll misses in 2016. We’re focusing on the national polls, which were largely accurate in 2016. 也, we’re doing an apples-to-apples comparison between pre-election polls then and now.
    And if you still don’t believe the polls, just look at the results in 2018 and the actions of the Biden campaign. House Democrats did significantly better in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than in Arizona, Florida and North Carolina. They also won the governorship and Senate races in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2018.
      There’s a reason why Biden based his campaign in Philadelphia and has been outspending Trump by factors of greater than 2:1 in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
      For Trump to win, he’ll probably need to knock down the big blue wall again. If he can’t, Biden’s probably the next president.




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