This is the happiest man in Washington

When the 117th Congress convenes earlier next year, Democrats will control 222 seats to 213 共和党人. Which is pretty slim!

But within weeks, that margin will get even narrower with the departures of Democratic Reps. 塞德里克·里士满 (路易斯安那州) and Marcia Fudge (俄亥俄) entering the Biden administration.
While Richmond and Fudge will be replaced by Democrats in special elections, it will take a whileand in the interim Speaker Nancy Pelosi (加利福尼亚州) will be forced to deal with one of the smallest House majorities ever.
I’m certainly concerned by the slimming of the majority,” said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (马里兰州) 在星期三. “I indicated to the administration very early on that I wanted them to be very careful in terms of the members that they appointed from Congress.

    That’s all very good news for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who oversaw stunning double-digit GOP seat gains in 2020. (众议院共和党人 didn’t lose a single incumbent in the election.)
    为什么? Because it means that Pelosi will almost certainly have to deal with McCarthy on the front end of most contentious legislation over the next two yearsknowing she will need a few GOP votes to secure a majority.
    While it is certainly possible that Pelosi will be able to keep her 220 Democrats entirely in line for some legislation, the fractures within the partyprimarily between its ascendant liberal wing and its more pragmatic, centrist armlikely mean that on many occasions she simply won’t have every Democrat with her.
    Which is a BIG change from how things worked over last two years when Democrats controlled more than 230 座位 — 和, 因此, almost never need to deal with Republicans on any sort of compromise.
    It’s going to be an exciting next two years, but we have work to get done this time as well,” 麦卡锡说 last month after being reelected unanimously as the leader of House Republicans.
      There’s also this: Historic trends suggest that the first midterm election of a president leads to major seat losses for his party in the House. (只要 两次 以来 1938 has a president’s party won House seats in his first midterm election.) If past is prologue, McCarthy may well be banging down’s the speaker’s gavel come January 2023.
      重点: McCarthy is positioned to matter more over the next two years than at any time since he entered GOP leadership. And to serve as the 55th speaker of the House in the 118th Congress.