Within the next week
, ニュージャージー (9月 19), バーモント (9月 21), Illinois and Michigan
(9月 24) begin early voting as well
That is bad news for President Donald Trump as his approval rating remains mired in the low 40s — anchored down by his handling of the coronavirus.
It’s also a reminder that Election Day, especially this year, is more like election month.
4. The Bloomberg Effect:
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg isn’t done dipping into his massive personal fortune to beat Trump in the fall.
Bloomberg will spend upwards of $ 100 百万 in Florida alone between now and Election Day
, a massive sum in a state that Trump won in
2016 and simply cannot afford to lose in November
Any doubt whether Bloomberg will actually spend what he says should have been cleared up by the $ 1 十億 — はい, BILLION — he spent on his own campaign for the Democratic nomination between November 2019 と3月 2020.
トランプ, who has long been bothered by Bloomberg’s wealth and time as mayor of his hometown, immediately responded to the Florida spending news.
“I thought Mini Mike was through with Democrat politics after spending almost
2 Billion Dollars
, and then giving the worst and most inept Debate Performance in the history of Presidential Politics
,” トランプをツイートした in a feat of insecurity
, a, trumping political smarts
Bloomberg has chosen a smart target in Florida
. No Republican has been elected president without winning the Sunshine State in almost 100 年
And since April, Trump has led in a total of one poll conducted in the state. Biden had led in 25. Three have showed a tie.
Bloomberg’s heavy spending — in addition to what Biden’s campaign (and the various super PACs affiliated with him) are dropping — could help the Democrat not just win the state but win the White House.
3. Joe Biden’s schedule becomes an issue:
トランプ, desperate to change the subject from the coronavirus, has zeroed in on his opponent’s schedule.
“もう一度, Sleepy Joe told the press they could go home at
” tweeted Trump on Saturday night
. “その間, your Favorite President
, 私, will go to Reno
, Nevada tonight
, three stops in Las Vegas tomorrow
, with California and Arizona on schedule Monday
. Don’t worry
, we won’t be taking off Tuesday
Trump had also taken to calling the former VP “Joe Hiden” in attempt to drive home what he believes to be a weak spot. (It’s also, もちろん, a tacit concession that Trump’s attempts to label Biden with past nicknames has failed.)
Biden has, without question, kept a lighter schedule than Trump who, in pursuit of acting as though the coronavirus is gone (or going), has taken to holding in-person rallies with thousands of attendees — many of whom are unmasked.
But of late
, perhaps aware of the criticism
, Biden ramped up his schedule
— visiting Pennsylvania twice
, Michigan and New York
. 今週, the former vice president will be in Minnesota
Watch to see how active Biden is this week and in the coming week. And whether he can beat back Trump’s latest nickname for him.
2. Trump is losing the “law and order” ディベート:
Trump has spent much of the last six weeks trying to paint the protests — some violent, most not — over racial injustice the country as evidence of rampant lawlessness in the country.
“If Joe Biden is elected
, far-left lunatics won’t just be running failed Dem Cities—they will be running the Department of Justice
, 国土安全保障省, と米国. 最高裁判所,” he tweeted recently
. “No city
, town or suburb will be safe.
A set of Siena College/New York Times polls in swing states
— ネバダ, ミネソタ, New Hampshire and Minnesota
— released last week suggests he is losing that fight
Asked whether the “biggest problem” in the country is “riots in America, or racism in the criminal justice system,” the numbers broke down like this:
ミネソタ: 42% riots/51% racism
ネバダ: 41% riots/53% racism
ニューハンプシャー: 40% riots/51% racism
ウィスコンシン: 46% riots/46% racism
That is bad news for Trump. Because numbers like those suggest he loses if the election is about racial inequality in the wake of the death of George Floyd in late May. And he loses if the election is about coronavirus (much more on that below).
Which leaves him with not a lot of good options at the moment.
トランプ, because he is Trump, will likely not back away from his fear tactics around “law and order,” largely because he knows that he simply cannot win an election centered on the coronavirus.
But these new swing state numbers suggest that Trump has a lot of selling still do on the issue between now and November. 3. And the public may not be buying.
1. Trump’s coronavirus problem isn’t getting better:
Trump is heavily invested in the idea that the coronavirus is getting better.
私たちです “rounding the corner
” in the fight against the coronavirus
, Trump told the audience at a campaign rally in Nevada on Saturday night
あれは, from a public health perspective
, not true
. “申し訳ありません, but I have to disagree with that because — if you look at the thing that you just mentioned — the statistics
, アンドレア, they’re disturbing
,” アンソニー・ファウチ, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
, told NBC’s Andrea Mitchell late last week
Those statistics are daunting
. ほぼあります 6.5 million cases in America with almost 193,000 デッド
. One influential model shows 415,000 dead by January 1, 2021
. And while the pace of cases
— と死 — has slowed somewhat
, we are still seeing more than
40,000 new cases a day and more than
And unfortunately for Trump, the public — or at least a large chunk of the public — isn’t buying what the President is selling.
A new ABC/Ipsos poll puts Trump’s approval on his handling of COVID-19 at
35%, the fourth straight ABC poll that has shown the President with a rating in the mid-to-low 30s on coronavirus
The consistency of those numbers coupled with how low they are suggest that public sentiment is hardened against Trump. And it continues to have a negative effect on his overall numbers against Biden in the general election.
の中に CNN poll of polls
, Biden leads Trump
51% に 43%, and there has been no discernible movement upwards for the incumbent in recent weeks
そう, Trump can say the country is “rounding the corner.” But there’s no evidence — from a public health or political perspective — that makes it true.