What if Senate Democrats win BIG in November?

The biggest news out of The Economist’s release this week of its Senate model is that it gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning 51 座位 (and the the majority) 在十一月 3.

But look a little deeper into the model’s projection and you see this: Democrats have a 1 在 3 chance of winning at least 53 seats and a 1 在 5 chance of winning at least 54 座位.
Which isn’t much of a long shot!
Those projections about the possibility of November being a BIG win for Senate Democrats as opposed to recapturing the majority by a single seat (or two) have all sorts of potential implications for what 2021 might look like.
    (Quick note: There’s no question, when looking at the landscape, that major Democratic gainsalong the line of a 6- or 7-seat net pickup are possible. At the moment the Cook Political Report, a non-partisan campaign tip sheet, rates 10 GOP-held seats in its most endangered categories as opposed to just two Democratic seats.)

    Consider that just this past Sunday, 参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer) (纽约) promised thateverything is on the table if Republicans, as they are expected to do, move forward before the election to confirm President Trump’s pick for the Supreme Court vacancy caused by Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death last week.
    在这种情况下 “一切” could mean: Adding seats to the Supreme Court, eliminating the filibuster entirely and granting statehood to DC and Puerto Rico. (Some of those moves would require a Democratic-controlled House and a Democrat in the White House.)
    While it’s not clear just how far Schumer would be willing to take his threat if and when Democrats retake the majority and he is placed in charge of running the chamber, any student who has ever taken a poli-sci class can understand why a bigger majority makes these things more possible.
    If Schumer, 说, is overseeing a 51-seat Democratic majority in 2021, he can only afford to lose two votes of his colleagues on any major legislation.
    And with West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Arizona Sen. 吉尔斯顿电影院 — both of whom have voted with Trump’s positions more than 50% of the time, 根据 538, certain to be in the Senate at that time, it would complicate Schumer’s efforts to go BIG in terms of major reforms as a means of payback for what Senate GOPers are going to do with the Supreme Court.
      Now consider how different Schumer’s outlook would be if he was sitting on a 53- or 54-seat majority. He could afford to let Manchin and Sinema go their own ways on this issue or thatand still be left with wiggle room to get things passed by simple majority.
      重点: The last few days have taught us all just how big the difference isin terms of outcomesbetween controlling 53 Senate seats and 51 Senate seats.

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