Democratici, anche se, don’t only want to win this election. They want to win it big because of what it says about the larger state of play.
Storicamente, the swing in House special elections from the last two presidential elections is telling. Combining the 2016 e 2020 results and giving more weight to the most recent one, New Mexico’s 1st District is about 18 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole.
This means that a basic baseline for Democrats is that Stansbury wins by 18 punti. This isn’t an exact estimate, as other factors such as candidate quality can impact special elections, like any other election.
Ancora, the only other congressional special election this year turned out to be a heavily Republican affair
. Nel Texas’ 6th District special election
, the Republicans combined got
25 points more of the vote than the Democratic candidates
. Biden had lost the district by a mere
The Texas special election
, anche se, was a jungle primary
. All the candidates
, regardless of party
, ran against each other in one primary
. There were more Republicans on the ballot
, and the Republican candidates raised a lot more money
In New Mexico
, Democrats don’t have the same excuse
. There is just one Democrat and one Republican on the ballot
(along with some minor party candidates
), and Democrats have spent a good amount of money on the race
Democrats want Stansbury’s likely victory to at least come close to the +18 point Democratic baseline. Another clear underperformance, dopo il Texas’ 6th, would be a true suggestion that the national environment has shifted since November.
Remember that we saw a lot of massive GOP underperformances in early 2017
. Republican candidates from California to Kansas to Montana did considerably worse than former President Donald Trump did in those districts in
That foreshadowed trouble for Republicans in future special elections and the
2018 midterms. Democrats ended up outperforming the presidential result baseline by an average of
12 punti in federal special elections
fra 2017 e 2018. They won the House popular vote by
9 points in the midterms
, a small difference of
From the 1994 per 2018 election cycles, the average swing in federal special elections from the previous presidential results has come within 3 points of the House popular vote in midterms. It’s not a perfect connection, but the correlation is high at +0.97.
Nel 2020, il federal special elections pointed to a much closer national environment than the polling that had Biden up by plenty
. The special elections were closer to the truth
The bottom line is Tuesday’s special election in New Mexico is a small piece of the puzzle. Detto ciò, storia, especially recent history, indicates that it’s still an important piece.