The pending Senate battle over the next Supreme Court nominee shows us how important winning Congress’ upper chamber is this fall. A president who doesn’t have the Senate backing him cannot fully use the power of the presidency to influence the government’s direction.
2020 could be shaping up to be a winner-take-all situation. Given the lineup of seats up in the Senate, chances are Democrats will take the Senate if former vice president 조 바이든 takes the presidency. If President 도날드 트럼프 wins a second term, chances are Republicans will retain control of the Senate.
지금, the Democrats are favored to take control of the Senate because of Biden. We could be looking at record straight ticket voting this cycle, and Biden’s advantage in the presidential race is seeping down into the Senate races.
The Democrats need a net gain of three to four seats to win the Senate: three if Biden wins and Kamala Harris, 부통령으로서, breaks a 50-50 스플릿, and four if Biden loses and Vice President Mike Pence breaks a tie.
Chances are Democrats will only need a net gain of 3 때문에 Biden’s ahead in the presidential race. And given what we’re about to talk about, it’s unlikely Democrats will get a net gain of 4 seats if President Donald Trump wins another term.
Democratic candidates for Senate have at least nominal polling advantages in five seats currently held by Republicans. They are 애리조나, 콜로라도, 아이오와, 메인 과 노스 캐롤라이나.
동시에, Republicans hold a polling lead in one Senate seat currently held by the Democrats: 앨라배마.
당연히, Biden is doing much better in the five states where the Democrats look best positioned to pick up Senate seats than he is in Alabama. 사실로, he is ahead in all five of those states, save maybe Iowa where different polling averages disagree on who the leader is.
Either way, Biden’s position is weakest in Iowa where the Democratic Senate candidate (Theresa Greenfield) has the smallest lead of the five current seats Democrats look best positioned to pick up.
모두 말했다, with maybe the exception of Iowa, every single state where Biden is leading also has the Democratic Senate candidate ahead. Likewise, every single state where Trump is ahead also has the Republican candidate for Senate leading.
There are potential exceptions to this rule. Biden is clearly behind in places such as 캔자스, Montana 과 사우스 캐롤라이나. The Democratic Senate candidates, 그러나, could win in any of them. 지금, 하나, they’re slightly behind.
하나, it’s hard to imagine Democrats winning in those races if Biden loses the presidency.
This could be the second presidential election in a row and only the second since senators were first popularly elected where every state votes for the candidate of the same party in both the presidential and Senate race.
그만큼 2020 election could even top the 2016 election in terms of the high correlation between presidential and Senate voting patterns in a state.
나는 took the FiveThirtyEight presidential polling average in every state and compared it to the FiveThirtyEight Senate lite model in those states (except for the Arkansas Senate race where no Democrat is running and the Georgia special Senate election where multiple candidates from each party are running). Both of these measures are essentially poll averages that are adjusted for the trendline in other states when there is a lack of recent polling in a given state.
전체적으로, we’re looking at 28 Senate races.
The average difference between the presidential and Senate margins in all the races is about 4.3 포인트들. If we’re looking at both the Senate races at the 14 races within 10 포인트들, which tend to have the most polling, the average difference is only 3.4 포인트들.
That’s barely any gap at all. It suggests the two measures are highly correlated.
과연, 90% of the differences in the Senate margins across states can be explained by the differences in the presidential margins. When we incorporate the results from the 2016 presidential election into our measure of presidential margins, 이 90% 된다 91%.
If that were the case when the actual results come in, the presidential and Senate margins in 2020 would be more highly correlated than in any Senate cycle since at least 1980.
The bottom line is Senate candidates in each state look to be more tied to the hip to their party’s nominee for president then since at least 1980. There is certainly some ability for Senate candidates to differentiate themselves from the top of the ticket, but not anywhere near as much as there used to be.
This could help to explain at least partially why few Republican senators are opposing Trump’s move to put a new Supreme Court justice on the bench before the election.
There’s just not much to be gained by going against the President.
