Later that same month
, Sinema wrote an op-ed of her own
— this one in The Washington Post
— making clear why she opposed getting rid of the legislative filibuster for any reason
. “My support for retaining the 60-vote threshold is not based on the importance of any particular policy
,” 彼女は書いた. “It is based on what is best for our democracy
. The filibuster compels moderation and helps protect the country from wild swings between opposing policy poles.
And assuming that both Manchin and Sinema stick to their positions, the John Lewis Act will never become law. Democrats can’t change the Senate rules to abolish the legislative filibuster unless all 50 of their senators (and the two independents who caucus with them) support such a rule change. そして, for the foreseeable future, they have only 48 投票.
The whole thing is likely to play out this way:
1. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will make clear that passing the law is of critical important to protecting the sanctity of the vote, leaning on moderate Republicans to join Democrats on a cloture vote that would lead to a final up-or-down choice on the legislation
2. A handful — 多分! — of Senate Republicans will side with Schumer. この時点で, ところで, only Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska has said she supports the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act. The chances 10 Republicans cross the aisle to join with all 50 民主党? 大まかに 0%.
3. Schumer will go to Manchin and Sinema — as will every Capitol Hill reporter — and ask them if they are willing to carve out an exception for this voting rights measure. They will say “番号,” arguing that you can’t open Pandora’s box and then quickly shut it again (On that point, 彼らです 100% 正しい).
4. The John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act will be, legislatively speaking, 終わり.
This almost-certain dead end is a striking contrast to the rapid-fire series of bills making it more difficult to vote that have moved through Republican-controlled legislatures since the
2020 選挙. By mid-July
, the Brennan Center for Justice
, a liberal leaning organization that tracks voting laws
, と言いました 18 states had enacted 30 new laws that make it harder to vote